The U.S. economy is clearly slowing. After adjusting for inflation, GDP grew by 2.9% in 2018, and by an even better 3.1% in 19Q1. But growth slowed to just 2% in 19Q2, is expected to …
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What Will Cause the Next Recession?
The Great Recession of 2008 is firmly in the rearview mirror. We are now enjoying the longest recovery in U.S. history, the unemployment rate is near a 50-year low, wage growth is pretty good, inflation …
China is Slowing and it’s Their Fault
Over the last several years, the economic data coming out of China has not been particularly good. GDP growth in 19Q2 was 6.2%, a three-decade low. While the Chinese publicly say that the trade war …
Modern Monetary Theory is Voodoo Economics Redux
There is currently widespread frustration with the performance of the global economy. Traditional policy approaches are not delivering the economic results they have in the past. In the U.S., Millennials are poorer, have lower incomes, marry …
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Why is Wage Growth So Lousy
While the most recent jobs report showed the unemployment rate at 4.0% — the lowest rate in almost 50 years — it also showed annual wage gains running at just 3.2%. While that is the …
Trade Wars: It’s All About Leverage
With the U.S.-China trade war looking increasingly ominous, two questions are on the minds of many: do trade deficits matter and which side has more to lose? Economists of almost all stripes agree that trade …
The Age of Austerity is Over
When the Congressional Budget Office made its June 2017 forecast of our fiscal future, it projected a deficit of $689 billion in FY2019. The deficit is now poised to be $1.2 trillion, a dramatic and …
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High Storage Levels, and Low Oil Prices
Oil prices are again on the decline, despite an announced reduction in supply by the OPEC oil cartel. Why? Dr. Eisenberg says the behavior of speculators and U.S. shale producers, the shape of the curve …
Immigration and its Economic Impacts
Recently, Senator Tom Cotton from Arkansas and Senator David Perdue from Georgia introduced legislation aiming to reduce legal immigration to slightly more than 500,000 per year from the current rate of one million per year. …